The most miserable cabinet in politics and how do you solve a problem like Plaid Cymru?
Plus what we learned from the race to be First Minister
Hello from the least serious journalist in Wales,
It has been a historic week. Wales (and Europe) has its first ever black leader Vaughan Gething. I want to start by saying that this is a hugely symbolic moment and a testament to an inclusive and diverse Wales. The fact a black man, born in Africa to a white Welsh man and black Zambian mother, is now leading our nation signals to people of all backgrounds that Wales is a place where you can dream big and be ambitious.
But 10 years from now people in Wales need to remember Vaughan Gething for more than the colour of his skin. Wales doesn’t just need a First Minister who is historically significant, it desperately needs a First Minister who will be successful. Schools and hospitals are on their knees and the economy is stagnant at best. Whether the man who, for the past decade, has been at the heart of the Welsh Government overseeing health and the economy is the best person to bring the change needed in those areas remains to be seen.
I think it is vital that we properly understand the challenges that Wales is facing. I have therefore made this previous newsletter looking at these issues free to all.
The leadership election sums up so much that is bad about Welsh politics
When the result of the Welsh Labour leadership was announced two thoughts struck me. The first was a rather smug “bloody hell I can’t believe I guessed the result” (this was far more a case of a stopped clock being right twice a day than any prophecy powers on my part).
The second was that this leadership election sums up many of the issues that Welsh politics faces. Let’s go through them:
A lack of ambition and an inability to acknowledge the mess we are in
There was barely any difference between either candidate when it came to meaningful policies to improve Wales.
When you are presiding over a country with the highest child poverty rates in the UK and the worst performing schools, tinkering around the edges is simply not an acceptable strategy. Anyone watching this leadership election and feeling like anything will change is, in my view, deluding themselves.
Neither candidate even came close to acknowledging how bad things are. Of course, why would they? They have been in power in Cardiff Bay for over 20 years and Welsh Labour love to tell us it is “the most successful democratic party in history”. But when they are not even willing to acknowledge the scale of the problems we face how can they possibly truly tackle them?
Wales is seriously underrepresented in UK wide media
When the stories about Vaughan Gething’s donations emerged it was barely even mentioned by most UK media. Imagine if the favourite to be the next Scottish First Minister had taken £200k from a known criminal, lobbied for that man's company and on the same day the donation was made the same company had submitted a bid for a large development that would require ministerial approval. This would have been huge news.
But as it is Wales, which is treated as just a little bit less of a country, there was barely a peep. What summed it up for me was that the likes of the Mail, Sun, Guido Fawkes etc couldn’t even bring themselves to use it as a stick to beat Keir Starmer. Given that they never miss an opportunity to do so suggests to me that that Wales is seen as so irrelevant that it isn’t even worth using it to attack an opponent (or more likely they didn’t even realise it was happening).
Wouldn’t it be lovely if the issue received UK wide attention simply because it was something highly controversial directly relating to the man leading over 3 million people?
The lack of media focus in Wales allows these issues to disappear
One of the hardest parts of reporting on issues in Wales is the lack of a wider media ecosystem. When a publication breaks a big political story in London, you have a dozen other newsrooms all looking into it. This keeps the story in news and means the story gets taken on. This in turn leads to greater pressure on politicians to explain themselves and, most importantly, more scrutiny.
This just isn’t the case in Wales. WalesOnline, BBC Wales and Nation all made huge contributions to this story but when you can count the number of journalists banging this drum on one hand it is easy for it to fizzle out.
Politicians can, and do, just ignore until they can move on.
The power of the unions
The backing of Mr Gething by the big six unions represents a serious issue IMO. There are some big questions that remains to be answered. What are the links between Vaughan Gething and the unions that led them to back him so uniformly? Why did Unite in Wales stitch up Jeremy Miles? Is this a Welsh story or a UK one - are we seeing here the influence of UK union leaders on Welsh politics? And, most importantly, is it right that union members are so dominant in choosing the leader of Welsh Labour who, given the nature of politics in Wales, is almost certain to be our First Minister. When you have 118k potential voters and 100k are from affiliated unions, their sway is huge.
Welsh Labour - bitter, divided and ready to go again?
I spoke to several people from Jeremy Miles’ campaign in aftermath of the result and I was struck by just how furious they all were. If Vaughan Gething had won by a large margin I think the anger over the donations would have dissipated. But when the vote is decided by hundreds of votes rather than thousands it is hard for those on Miles side (who comprised a majority of MSs) to not feel embittered about the huge mismatch in funding. Especially when Mr Gething dismissed people who were asking questions about this issue as “not serious”.
One of them told me that the feeling was very “oh well, we will be doing this again within two years”. They think he will not be in post for long. This is not a united party.
I had to laugh at a picture the Welsh Government posted on Twitter (fight me Musk) showing Vaughan Gething and his new cabinet.
Now clearly you can’t read lots into a single picture. If you had seen many of the pictures of me at university you would have thought I was a nerdy loner who couldn’t handle their drink and nothing could be further from the truth. But this picture is gold.
First things first, only two of the people who backed Vaughan Gething are even looking at him.
Of those who are looking at him, one is Hannah Blythyn who looks furious. The other is Jeremy Miles himself who looks like a man that just endured a hard fought leadership election for three months only to lose by a few hundred votes by a man with five times the resources.
Lesley Griffiths in the dark blue suit is surrounded by supporters of Mr Gething and seemingly can’t bear to look at him and instead has the demeanour of a Premier League footballer who has been told by their coach to stand in the wall for a freekick.
Elsewhere Mick Antoniw can barely contain his delight that the man he backed lost and Julie James (who said after the result the rules around donations would need to be changed) looking like she has just come out to intimidate a contestant and be a Chaser on The Chase.
Even if Mr Gething had a united party behind him he faces a monstrous task. But unless he can get these people back onside and all pulling in the same direction he has no chance.
How do you solve a problem like Plaid Cymru?
Today I interviewed Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth at his party’s spring conference in Caernarfon. He has a really tough job - making Plaid Cymru truly an electoral threat to Welsh Labour.
Whether or not you support Plaid, it would be really good for Wales for there to be at least one credible threat to Welsh Labour dominance. We discussed in a previous newsletter why the current iteration of the Welsh Tories have no electoral chance so it really is falling to Plaid at the moment to provide any meaningful threat to Labour. But there is a problem, they are failing to do so anywhere in Wales other than in their heartlands (where many would vote for a phone box if you put a green and yellow rosette on it).
Let’s have a look at what the challenge they face is, and why I think they could do really well in the 2026 Senedd election.
The issues Plaid face:
A really turbulent 2022/23 where the then leader Adam Price was forced to step down after revelations about a horrible culture within the party.
They have been in a cooperation agreement with Welsh Labour since 2021. This has helped push through some of their policy priorities (reducing number of second homes, free school meals and increase the Senedd size etc) but has left them in the “Lib Dem” position of being seen as a junior partner and unable to distinguish themselves.
A 2024 General Election which could be brutal. The changes to constituency boundaries were not kind to Plaid and the next GE is likely to be portrayed as a Labour v Conservative battle. At best they will hold on to what they have got and maybe take Anglesey at a push.
Welsh independence has not got the same momentum as it had during Covid.
The have far fewer resources and a much smaller party machinery than Labour. They will never match then in terms of boots on the ground.
But there are some real opportunities for Plaid Cymru come the Senedd election in 2026:
There will likely be a Labour Government in Cardiff Bay and Westminster. Welsh Labour will no longer be able to say “it’s the Tories fault” that the money isn’t flowing into Wales and this will leave them far more vulnerable to criticism.
Whatever a Starmer administration does, there seems little chance things will have dramatically improved within two years. This leaves people in Wales still wanting change and Labor being the clear status quo - something that Plaid can exploit.
The Tories will likely still be a spent force in a national context. If the current polls are accurate, the Conservatives could have been crushed in the GE. Two years later it is hard to see how they will have recovered their credibility with the public. This leaves Plaid able to position itself as the only real alternative to Labour.
Not many people vote in Senedd elections. Plaid may be lacking in resources, but you simply don’t need to convince as many people to turn out and vote to have good result in a Senedd election compared to a General. If they can target their more limited resources better, they may have a chance of serious games.
Rhun ap Iorwerth clearly gets what Plaid’s issues are. When I asked him what the party would be offering voters in the Valleys that they weren’t offering in 2021 (when their vote collapsed in that area) he basically said that this time around they would actually be talking to them. He isn’t looking to dramatically change the party’s policies, he just wants to stop simply only talking to people who already like them. They have already held events in areas such as Merthyr and they seem to really be focused on making gains in this area (without winning in the Valleys Plaid have no chance of making progress).
They are still pro independence - just not as loud about it. Adam Price went all in on Welsh indy. Thinking that the rise of YesCymru was a wave he could ride all the way into power, he put indy front and centre of his 2021 campaign. This did not work. Under Mr Iorwerth, Plaid still champions indy, but it appears far more focused on making Wales ready to be independent, rather than demanding it immediately. This makes them far more appealing to the majority of people in Wales who don’t support independence.
The party seems to have got to grips with the cultural issues that brought down Mr Price. Speaking to Plaid members from grassroots up to MSs, there is far more upbeat (and frankly safe) atmosphere in the party than there was a year ago.
There is an opportunity for Plaid in two years. If the party can play their cards right I predict it will have its best ever result. Rhun ap Iorwerth will be praying this stopped clock is right again.
Thanks for reading. Next week I will be doing a full round up of all the donations Mr Gething and Miles received (some are still likely to come in) but I would like to move away from Labour leadership and focus on some other issues.
If you have anything you would like me to look at please comment.
As always thanks for the support.
Will
PUBLIC TRANSPORT:
1. When Mark Drakeford came to power, the first thing he did was scrap the Newport Relief Road, promising to find an alternative. I gather that it would have affected about 7% of the wetlands, most of which had already been affected in preparations.
2. Because of the pollution caused by M4 traffic jams around Newport Drakeford announced charges for using that stretch of the M4.
3. Wales' Capital City had what was probably one of the best public transport hubs in the UK with trains, buses and coaches all in the centre. But, no, an office block became more important than encouraging more on to public transport.