Why the Welsh Tories are just a bit of a joke and is there any real difference between Jeremy Miles and Vaughan Gething?

The leadership race is gathering pace but do either men actually offer real change?

Greetings!

I am writing most of this on January 24 just before going away for three weeks. As such I will be spending the intervening time between me writing it and you opening it praying that this all stays relevant. 

Given today I will be talking about the Labour leadership race and how the Welsh Tories have been talking absolute dross on how they would fix the Welsh NHS, I am feeling fairly confident. I can’t see either Vaughan Gething or Jeremy Miles dropping out of the Labour leadership race or the Andrew-RT-Davies-led Welsh Tories putting forward a credible plan on health, so I reckon I am safe. 

Before I jump into it, I need to set one thing straight. In last week’s newsletter I referred to Vaughan Gething being spotted eating chips with his family on a park bench during the first Covid lockdown and, slightly flippantly, said that it was when we were only allowed out for 15 minutes at a time. I’ve been asked to point out that there was never a 15-minute exercise rule. The rule some thought Mr Gething had broken was the Welsh Government’s rule that “going for a walk and then having a picnic or spending a prolonged period on a park bench, for example, is not considered to be exercise and is not intended to be a reasonable excuse”. I’m sure we’ll find out more on his views on when sitting down to eat chips on a park bench is or isn’t a picnic at the inquiry.

And, without further ado, here we go!

Just what is the difference between Miles and Gething?

We can all agree that Wales is facing a huge range of challenges. We can all agree that we can’t keep doing what we are doing. Whoever takes over as Welsh Labour leader is going to likely soon be faced with a Labour government in London that has no plans to give them more money so they are going to need some bold creative ideas not to mention energy to meet these challenges.

And what we have are two men who have been at the heart of Welsh Government decision making for over half a decade. I personally feel that beyond their personalities, which are quite different, there isn’t really much between the pair of them. They’ve both now published manifestos, which you can see a comparison of here. And I also emailed both candidates’ campaign teams to ask them one simple question:

What is the biggest difference between yourself and your rival in the leadership race?

Both replied so let’s break them down one at a time.

A Jeremy Miles campaign spokesperson said:

“Jeremy is the candidate Plaid and the Tories fear the most. They don’t want him to win.

“He’s on the centre-left of the party, and is completely committed to further devolution of powers to Wales and within Wales. 

"The people who work closest with both candidates, think Jeremy will make the best leader. That’s why the majority of the Senedd group and Labour council leaders and deputy leaders support him.

“With his 20 years' experience working internationally in law and commercial posts, he brings senior-level business experience from outside politics. He represents a seat in south west Wales, so is the only candidate with a perspective outside Cardiff. He relates to and can speak up for communities across the whole of Wales.

“He’s got a strong reputation for being inclusive, thoughtful and interested in ideas. The support he’s receiving from across a wide range of sectors in and outside of Welsh Labour shows he’s the candidate for Wales’ future.”

Right, first off, do Plaid and the Tories “fear him the most”? The answer to this is probably yes. I have spoken to people within both parties and this seems to be the consensus. From Plaid’s perspective, him being a Welsh speaker is not ideal. It was harder to paint Drakeford as a unionist stooge as he delivered his speeches in Cymraeg.

Plus the fact that he is perceived as, well, boring, means he is likely to leave few lines for attack from opposition parties.

The “is completely committed to further devolution of powers to Wales and within Wales” is an interesting thing to draw attention to. Are they suggesting that Vaughan is more devo-sceptic? The “within Wales” part of that may be to try and win support for councils who would like a bit more power. It may come back to bite them if they do win because UK Labour are not really fussed on giving Wales much more in the way of powers.

In my view “The people who work closest with both candidates think Jeremy will make the best leader” is basically saying that they think he is simply a more likeable bloke than Vaughan Gething. It is noticeable that most people who have worked with Vaughan before haven’t backed him.

Vaughan Gething was quoted directly for his statement saying:

“This campaign isn’t about criticising each other; I can only speak for myself and why I’m running to be the next leader of Welsh Labour. I believe I have the experience, values and vision to bring people together and build a better future for Wales. As Health Minister during the pandemic, I was tested in the most difficult circumstances. While the Tories partied in Downing Street, Mark and I worked around the clock to help keep Wales safe. This is a high stakes moment for Wales with a difficult economy and a must-win General Election expected any day. That experience leaves me well-prepared to help us meet these challenges head on.

“If I am privileged enough to be elected leader, I would lead a Government that listens and brings people together. I know what it’s like to experience prejudice and adversity and have dedicated my working life to listening to and standing up for people as a councillor, trade union lawyer, and now in the Senedd. I would be honoured to continue doing so as Welsh Labour leader and First Minister.”

Gething’s answer is less combative than Miles’. Really it focuses on the two things that he has repeated throughout his campaign: I have experience during Wales’ toughest time and I have close links to the unions. You can read a breakdown of Vaughan’s pandemic performance in last week's newsletter. 

Now I fully understand that when you are trying to win a party leadership race, you are really just trying to appeal to a pretty narrow group of people. This is not a time when they will necessarily say anything controversial or criticise previous Labour administrations.

However I do find the apparent total lack of any real change with the past from either man to be deeply depressing. We can all see that Wales needs to rethink how it does things, and both candidates seem to be just offering more of the same. 

Before I continue, I must mention that my colleagues on the sportdesk joined me on Substack this week with the launch of Inside Welsh Rugby. Please check it out here

The joke that is the Welsh Conservatives…

Well if change and improvements are not going to come from within Welsh Labour, perhaps they will come from another party taking power. So let’s have a look at the largest opposition party and what they plan to do to tackle the issues in the health service (get ready to be very disappointed). 

In the summer of last year I wrote this special report about the Welsh NHS and how both the UK and Welsh Government are guilty of underfunding it. 

After this the Tories emailed me a press release saying that Welsh Labour were to blame and that "the Welsh Conservatives would fully fund our NHS"....

Now this is a very big promise and one that would have been a real challenge financially because of how stretched the Welsh budget is. Wanting to give them the benefit of the doubt that they haven’t simply said a generic phrase without a plan to back it up I asked them if they would be taking cash from housing or education to make up the shortfall as these are the two areas which are most inflated.

Within five minutes we had our answer which was a single sentence: 

"We’d scrap Labour’s huge list of vanity projects and bring financial prudency back to Wales, Will."

Ooo sassy. As this is not exactly heavy with detail I replied asking about these "vanity projects" saying: "Can you be specific so I can check if that will make up the funding shortfall?"

To this they replied with 15 "vanity projects" they would scrap to boost NHS funding.

The Welsh Tories then came back with a list of projects they would scrap in order to "properly fund the Welsh NHS". The list was as follows:

• Cardiff Airport

• M4 relief road ‘planning’

• 'Roads scrapped after road review'

• Expansion of the Senedd

• Basic income pilot

• 20mph zones

• Universal free school meals

• The Covid money sent back to UK Government

• Voting pilot

• Constitutional Committee

• Procurement card waste

• Bryn Cegin

• Technium Centres

• Ebbw Vale cable car

• Gilestone Farm

So now we have the list, would this add up to enough to give a sizable amount of savings that could go to the Welsh NHS? The short answer is no. You don’t need to be a genius to see that some of this is total rubbish but let’s go through it starting with the ones which will save no money.

Bryn Cegin and Technium centres - Both these purchases of land were several decades ago. Bryn Cegin is a 90-acre industrial park in Bangor where plans were first submitted in 2000 whereas the Technium centres were in 2003. The idea that the Tories could bankroll the Welsh NHS because they wouldn't have done projects that happened over two decades ago is bizarre.

Ebbw Vale cable car and Gilestone Farm - The Ebbw Vale cable car was a bit of a nightmare costing £2.3m and about £50k a year to run. It also broke down relentlessly (252 times in the first two years of operating). However it’s now funded by the local authority. 

Gilestone Farm cost £4.25m and the purchase was criticised for being rushed. However, this money is already spent and will not create extra money.

M4 relief road ‘planning’ - The Tories say they wouldn't have wasted the money on planning for the M4 relief road which the Welsh Government cancelled. However there are two issues here. The first is that the Conservatives say they WOULD build the M4, therefore it stands to reason they would have spent money on the planning. Plus all of this money has already been spent so there is no savings within the Welsh budget.

'Roads scrapped after road review' - It is hard to see how building roads instead of scrapping them will actually save money going forward for the Welsh NHS.

The Covid money sent back to UK Government - Though it was quite scandalous that Wales had over £150m reclaimed by the UK Government because Wales didn't spend it within a set financial year this doesn't make up any shortfall in the Welsh budget. And the Welsh Tories could also talk to Rishi Sunak and get him to send the money back if they feel so strongly about it.

Voting pilot - These pilots looked at how to increase turnout during the Local Government Elections in May 2022. It cost £1.5m and all of that has already been spent so there will be no additional money for the Welsh NHS.

Right, now we have got all of that out of the way lets look at the things that could actually save some money that they listed:

Cardiff Airport - £8m a year

Carwyn Jones paid £52m to nationalise Cardiff Airport in 2013. It has proven increasingly unprofitable in recent years with over £40m in taxpayer loans written off by the Welsh Government since the purchase and a £42.6m grants facility created. Last year the Welsh Government gave the airport an £8.4m grant. It is impossible to say the costs of the airport in the future and it wouldn’t be worth much if you sold it. But let’s use the £8.4m figure as a rough estimate of a potential saving.

Expansion of the Senedd - £12m

The plan to increase the number of Senedd members is estimated to cost between £11.7m and £12.9m. That figure is not only for members' salaries, it would also include pay for Senedd staff, running of elections and the upkeep of the parliament building and associated offices.

Basic income pilot - £6.6m

From July 2022 more than 500 people leaving care in Wales have been offered £1,600 each month (before tax) for two years to support them as they make the transition to adult life. The aim is to study what impact having this no-strings-attached cash will have on the life choices of these people. The Welsh Government has already said it won’t continue with the scheme in future so that’s no saving at all. But to give the benefit of the doubt, the scheme is £20m over the three years so about £6.6m a year.

20mph zones- £7m

The creation of a 20mph national speed limit will have a direct cost to the taxpayer (things like changing road signs, markings and a marketing campaign about the changes) of roughly £32.5 million between 2022-2027 but most will be incurred in the year preceding the introduction. However this cost will likely have ended by the time of the next Senedd election so wouldn't really create any extra money. But for argument’s sake let's say it is £7m a year.

Constitutional Committee - £1.1m

We covered the work of the Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales in a newsletter a few weeks ago. It cost £1.1m last year but concluded at the end of 2023. To be fair to the Tories when I asked them about this there was still a bit of time to go so if we assume that this money will not be allocated anywhere else it could be used to make up £1.1m in the health budget.

Procurement card waste - £800,000

More than £800,000 was spent on Welsh Government credit cards in 2021-22 — including almost £8,000 at a top restaurant. The figures also show thousands of pounds of taxpayers' money went towards luxury hotels. If these were scrapped entirely it would save £800K. However the Welsh Government would argue much of this money is not wasted and any Conservative administration might find cutting it easier said than done.

Universal free school meals - £65m (though likely a fair bit less)

This is a Welsh Government and Plaid Cymru policy that will see all primary school children in Wales get free school meals by 2024.

£260m has been committed to implement the programme over three years – although this includes around £60m of capital funding for local authorities to improve school kitchen facilities / purchasing equipment etc and won't be needed after a few years. This policy will feed an extra 72,000 kids in the first year alone.

It is important to bear in mind that £260m remaining would not all be recouped if the policy was reversed because there would still be money for children who are eligible for free school meals (just under 30%). If we take off the £60m of capital spend and assume that the full £200m remaining will go back to the taxpayer then we can say cancelling the scheme would save about £65m a year. This doesn't take into account that is likely that £20m+ would still be going to the children who are eligible.

After all that we are left with a saving of £100.5m (ish). Though this may sound like a lot of cash it is only 1.1% of the current Welsh NHS budget and would only be enough to offer a 1% pay increase across the public sector in Wales.

‘These are not serious people’

So why did I just take you on this accounting exercise? Well the reason is to point out that though Welsh Labour has huge issues, there is no credible alternative at present. To paraphrase Logan Roy in Succession: “These are not serious people”. 

These two issues compound each other. Because there is no credible alternative, Labour don’t need to be better. And because the Tories don’t feel like they can ever win in Wales, they never feel the need to be credible. It is a vicious cycle. 

Well that is all for this week. I hope you found it interesting. I will be back from my travels next week so let me know in the comments what you would like me to look at.

Take care

Will