Hello!
I really want to start with a thank you. We have been nominated for the best politics newsletter at the Publisher Newsletter Awards. This means we are up against some really significant publications such as the FT and Economist.
The fact that there are so many people who are willing to support a newsletter specifically looking at Welsh issues is really heartening for me (and not just because I have focused my expertise on Cymru). The more we increase awareness of Welsh politics the more likely we are to see an improvement on the standard of people seeking to govern us. On that note, let me take you on a journey…
Will the last Welsh Conservative shut the (barn) door on the way out?
As you drive down the lane of Keepers Lodge Farm in rural Monmouthshire you see more signs advertising clay pigeon shooting than you do members of the public. But you are not off to shoot a clay pigeon. Lucky devil that you are you’re off to the launch of the Welsh Conservatives' election campaign.
Parking up you notice that sat on the wooden gate is a pair of great tits, there is something symbolic in that. It also stinks of dung - auspicious.
Given that we are in the countryside you hope to catch a glimpse of rare and engaged species and walking into the barn you are not disappointed. You are greeted by 24 Welsh Conservatives; councillors, the Secretary of State for Wales and the Senedd leader as well as a smattering of MSs, all backdropped by a large combine harvester.
One of the journalists watching quips that this probably represents a pretty large percentage of their Welsh membership.
First up is Monmouth MP David TC Davies. Fair play, the Sec of State is pretty good at riling up a Tory crowd (though the word crowd probably needs some of the machinery nearby to do that heavy lifting). He says that in the election campaign the electorate will realise what a mistake it would be to elect Labour.
Next up is Andrew RT Davies who always speaks like he is calling the final stages of the Grand National. With the forced exuberance of a Butlins red coat at the end of the season he asks “who is ready for the election?”, to which the 23 people behind him (including one poor kid who was having the lamest ever half-term break) said “yeah!”.
He then followed up with “are we going to defy the polls?” to which there was a few seconds of deafening silence before everyone released they should probably show some willingness. You can check it out on the video here:
There are several reasons why the Welsh Conservatives decided to hold their launch in a barn in the middle of nowhere. The first is that they have no plans this election to try and gain new voters. They are not aiming to convince anyone who didn’t vote Tory in 2019 to vote Tory now. They have given up on that.
Just look at Andrew RT Davies’ social media feed. It is totally geared to shoring up the people who are already inclined to agree with him. Interestingly the man who runs his bin fire of a Twitter account was also there sporting a very fetching gilet (because of course he was).
They really, really need to shore up their base and you don’t get much more of a base for the Conservatives in Wales than a farm in Monmouthshire.
The second reason that they chose a setting that was like a nativity scene with tripods was because they had no time to prepare this. The people in this room were as surprised as anyone when Sunak announced the election. One of them had said to me just a few weeks before that “it doesn’t make sense” to have a summer election and that autumn would be the best time to go to the polls.
No NHS plan
I managed to get five minutes chatting to Andrew RT Davies. The first thing I noticed was the bloke has a bone-crushing handshake. In his defence, I did once go undercover to show that his wife was working as a hypnotherapist while also drawing a full-time salary as his office manager at the taxpayers expense, so I guess I can forgive the fact my hand is now a misshapen claw.
Given that perhaps the biggest issue facing Wales at the moment is the Welsh NHS I decided to use my time with Mr Davies asking about it. He is the leader of the opposition and you would hope, given he keeps saying how he would “properly fund” the Welsh NHS, that he would have a credible plan. Alas the auspices were correct.
This was the exchange: