Why did they launch their election campaign in a barn?
Plus anger in Welsh Labour
Hello!
I really want to start with a thank you. We have been nominated for the best politics newsletter at the Publisher Newsletter Awards. This means we are up against some really significant publications such as the FT and Economist.
The fact that there are so many people who are willing to support a newsletter specifically looking at Welsh issues is really heartening for me (and not just because I have focused my expertise on Cymru). The more we increase awareness of Welsh politics the more likely we are to see an improvement on the standard of people seeking to govern us. On that note, let me take you on a journey…
Will the last Welsh Conservative shut the (barn) door on the way out?
As you drive down the lane of Keepers Lodge Farm in rural Monmouthshire you see more signs advertising clay pigeon shooting than you do members of the public. But you are not off to shoot a clay pigeon. Lucky devil that you are you’re off to the launch of the Welsh Conservatives' election campaign.
Parking up you notice that sat on the wooden gate is a pair of great tits, there is something symbolic in that. It also stinks of dung - auspicious.
Given that we are in the countryside you hope to catch a glimpse of rare and engaged species and walking into the barn you are not disappointed. You are greeted by 24 Welsh Conservatives; councillors, the Secretary of State for Wales and the Senedd leader as well as a smattering of MSs, all backdropped by a large combine harvester.
One of the journalists watching quips that this probably represents a pretty large percentage of their Welsh membership.
First up is Monmouth MP David TC Davies. Fair play, the Sec of State is pretty good at riling up a Tory crowd (though the word crowd probably needs some of the machinery nearby to do that heavy lifting). He says that in the election campaign the electorate will realise what a mistake it would be to elect Labour.
Next up is Andrew RT Davies who always speaks like he is calling the final stages of the Grand National. With the forced exuberance of a Butlins red coat at the end of the season he asks “who is ready for the election?”, to which the 23 people behind him (including one poor kid who was having the lamest ever half-term break) said “yeah!”.
He then followed up with “are we going to defy the polls?” to which there was a few seconds of deafening silence before everyone released they should probably show some willingness. You can check it out on the video here:
There are several reasons why the Welsh Conservatives decided to hold their launch in a barn in the middle of nowhere. The first is that they have no plans this election to try and gain new voters. They are not aiming to convince anyone who didn’t vote Tory in 2019 to vote Tory now. They have given up on that.
Just look at Andrew RT Davies’ social media feed. It is totally geared to shoring up the people who are already inclined to agree with him. Interestingly the man who runs his bin fire of a Twitter account was also there sporting a very fetching gilet (because of course he was).
They really, really need to shore up their base and you don’t get much more of a base for the Conservatives in Wales than a farm in Monmouthshire.
The second reason that they chose a setting that was like a nativity scene with tripods was because they had no time to prepare this. The people in this room were as surprised as anyone when Sunak announced the election. One of them had said to me just a few weeks before that “it doesn’t make sense” to have a summer election and that autumn would be the best time to go to the polls.
No NHS plan
I managed to get five minutes chatting to Andrew RT Davies. The first thing I noticed was the bloke has a bone-crushing handshake. In his defence, I did once go undercover to show that his wife was working as a hypnotherapist while also drawing a full-time salary as his office manager at the taxpayers expense, so I guess I can forgive the fact my hand is now a misshapen claw.
Given that perhaps the biggest issue facing Wales at the moment is the Welsh NHS I decided to use my time with Mr Davies asking about it. He is the leader of the opposition and you would hope, given he keeps saying how he would “properly fund” the Welsh NHS, that he would have a credible plan. Alas the auspices were correct.
This was the exchange:
Me: I don't think anyone who looks at the waiting list in the Welsh NHS would think it was going well but what would you do differently?
RT Davies: We have said that in the early days [presumably of the pandemic] we would have brought the surgical hubs and diagnostic centres into play. This would have suppressed those waiting times, because people would have got the diagnosis that they required at the diagnostic centres, and then gone into the surgical hubs to have the surgery that was required. And that would have suppressed the waiting time numbers.
But that is in the past. If I were to put you in charge of the Welsh NHS how would you fix it?
We'd have a far faster rollout of diagnostic centres and surgical hubs in the first instance. We'd also have a strategic workforce plan in place which I appreciate isn't a tap turned on straight away but you have to start somewhere. And we'd be commissioning as much independent capacity as we possibly can to get that independent capacity working on behalf of the NHS.
But to get the Welsh NHS back on track you don’t just need small administrative tweaks, you need more money. How are you going to pay for that?
I accept that it's not just small administrative tweaks, but you have to put those small steps in place to get the overall gains. Being a farmer, I know you need to create a seed bed to put the seeds in to make the seed grow…
[Interrupting] How are you going to pay for those seeds?
One example is that the Welsh Government has put £300 million into free school meals. We believe free school meals are important for those children who require them and who are on universal benefits or for families who are struggling in poverty. Likewise, in summer holidays, we believe it should continue to the summer holidays. But we don't believe that £300 million should have been spent on supporting solicitors and doctors who are on 40% tax rates and ultimately can afford to pay for school meals.
But realistically you wouldn’t be saving £300m because lots of people will still be getting free school meals. Even if you did save that much, the Welsh NHS budget is around £10bn, this is still a drop in the ocean compared to what's needed. Where would you be getting extra money?
It would make a sizable difference in some of the numbers that we're talking about. We would spend the £1.20 [see context below] that comes from the UK Government in its entirety, as opposed to the Labour government. I can't read you the whole budget as we stand in our shed in Monmouth but I've given you a taste of what we would do.
How you would pay for it? I don't understand where that money is going to come from. You say you will pass the full consequential on to the Welsh NHS but that means you have to take some money out of education and housing. Which will it be?
I've said to you we would have made decisions previously and where we think Labour have gone wrong. We have a comprehensive spending review coming up after the election and we would be making a strong case to make sure that more money was allocated specifically to waiting times so that we get that resource back into Wales.
Clear as mud right?
Where he talks about the “£1.20” what he means is that Wales receives £1.20 of Barnett-based funding for every £1 per person of equivalent UK Government spending in England. This is in part to account for the fact that it is more expensive to deliver the same service in Wales compared to England because of the older/sicker population and the spread out nature of our people.
At the moment the Welsh Government doesn't pass on the full amount they get from the NHS, in England, to the NHS in Wales. They take some to put into housing and education (though it is a bit more complex than that) and argue that this has increased health benefits long term.
The main takeaway I always get from these exchanges is that no party has a credible plan to make the Welsh NHS better. Mr Davies is the main opponent to Welsh Labour and he is talking about savings that won’t make huge material differences to NHS resources.
This is why, time and again, in this newsletter I make the point that things are not going to get better any time soon. It is not that politicians are not willing to tackle the problem, they are not even acknowledging how big the problem is and what the realistic steps would be to solve it.
Anger within Welsh Labour
Away from random barns full of crap, there is real anger among many Welsh Labour supporters after the central party parachuted a candidate into Swansea West.
Incumbent MP Geraint Davies has previously announced he will not be seeking re-election for the safe Labour seat, having represented the constituency since 2010. He was suspended from the party in 2023 pending the outcome of allegations of sexual harassment against him and has sat as an independent since then.
Swansea Council leader Rob Stewart's name had been linked with the vacant candidacy, but Welsh Labour has now confirmed that Torsten Bell has instead been selected. Mr Bell is chief executive of the think tank The Resolution Foundation and was special adviser to Alistair Darling.
I have had several councillors and activists contact me about this. One said:
Grassroots party members, previously loyal to the Starmer’s leadership, are dismayed firstly by the controversy surrounding Vaughan Gething’s campaign donations and manner of this victory, and now the parachuting-in of candidates into Welsh seats with little or no links to the constituencies they seek to represent.
Together with Vaughan’s victory and the Diane Abbot saga, party members feel that the NEC appointed candidates are the latest in party stitch ups that are becoming increasingly difficult to justify on the doorstep whilst campaigning. Many members joining their Labour candidates this weekend feel deflated and increasingly bitter about the direction the party is taking.
There is clearly a lot of ill feeling in Welsh Labour at the moment and clearly there remains big questions around the First Minister, but considering that their main rivals are two dozen middle aged blokes in a barn I can’t imagine they are too concerned.
That’s all from me this week. I am off all of next week for a holiday (sunny Ceredigeon) booked before I knew there was going to be a general election or a no confidence vote in Mr Gething. This is rather annoying given I have been pursuing this story for six months but I will content myself by bathing in the sewage filled oceans of our great nation.
I appreciate that you are paying for this so there will be two newsletters the week after. Who knows, perhaps Mr Gething will no longer be First Minister (though I am pretty sure he will survive the vote).
Take care
Will