Where it went wrong for Vaughan Gething

After a tumultuous 6 months, the First Minister has stepped down

Hello everyone (including the 100+ new subscribers),

Well I picked a great time to take time off…

It is strange that while there was a feeling of inevitability around Vaughan Gething stepping down it was also quite surprising. 

Of course it is not unexpected for a First Minister to resign after four senior members of his government quit. But it would also have been unexpected for a First Minister to not quit after losing a no confidence vote. 

There are three important questions that are worthy of attention:

1. Why has he gone now?

2. What went wrong for him?

3. What happens next?

Why has he gone now?

The answer to this one is clear; the resignations of Mick Antoniw, Julie James, Leslie Giffiths and Jeremy Miles put him in a very tough position. I would be surprised if Mr Gething didn’t try and fill those positions before stepping down, but ultimately it must have been clear to him that he wasn’t going to be able to form a full cabinet.

Each of those resigning gave their own rationale for quitting but the common theme was that the Welsh Government wasn’t going to be able to pass its budget come the autumn.

This was the final straw upon the back of what was an already exhausted and heavily laden camel. 

What went wrong for Vaughan Gething and could it have been different?

This, I think, is the most interesting question. Because Mr Gething’s tenure didn’t have to be this disastrous. Yes, the donation was the start of his woes but even with that, different decisions could have saved Mr Gething from the position he now finds himself in. 

Acknowledge people’s legitimate concerns over the donations

When the revelations around the £200k donation Vaughan Gething received from a convicted criminal came to light his repeated reaction was: “I have broken no rules”. This was all he would say.

Once it transpired that on the day the company made a donation they also applied for a development which would need Welsh Government approval he said: “No serious journalist would take this seriously”. 

When it emerged that the Development Bank for Wales (which Vaughan Gething was responsible for as economy minister at the time) gave a £400k loan to the company just 11 months before they donated to Mr Gething’s campaign, he again blithely dismissed criticism, saying that “no rules were broken”.

If, when the issue of donations was first raised, Mr Gething had simply said “I know I have done nothing wrong but I appreciate that people have questions over this, I therefore have ordered a full investigation into the issue”, there is no way that it would have snowballed to the extent it has. It was how Mr Gething responded to the issue as much as the issue itself that caused these problems. 

Mr Gething’s unwavering line throughout this has been “take my word for it”. That was never going to hold. If he had given an inch early on he would likely still be in post. 

Acknowledge the political reality and behave accordingly

From the very start Mr Gething has behaved as if both of the following things were true:

• He had a majority in the Senedd

• He enjoyed the support of most of his own MSs

The problem was - neither were. 

We all knew that Plaid was going to break the cooperation agreement. Mr Gething seemingly made no effort to bring them on side or court Jane Dodds, the lone Lib Dem. This left him extremely vulnerable in the Senedd.

He also failed to bring his own party along with him. Most backed his opponent and there was considerable bad blood from the Miles side at the huge donations and union stitch up. To move forward Mr Gething needed to bring his opponents inside the tent in a meaningful way. But instead he dismissed legitimate concerns as “unserious”. 

Sacking Hannah Blythyn

While from Mr Gething’s point of view it might have felt good in the short term to sack Hannah Blythyn, her dismissal was clearly a serious misstep in several ways:

• There was clearly little discussion with her regarding the evidence underpinning the sacking. Her subsequent denial of involvement was what caused this to rumble on so long. 

• You can argue that the leak, whoever did it, was in the public interest. It cast a light on the internal workings of Welsh Government ministers during the pandemic where Mr Gething said he would delete messages to avoid freedom of information requests. This was after he had told the Covid Inquiry that his messages were lost when he changed phones. It wasn’t like there was a wider outcry that it was leaked. The was a national security risk or threat to other people, it was just bad for the First Minister. Her sacking strangely made him look weaker. No one would have been talking about the leak in a few weeks if he had just sorted the issue behind closed doors.

• It led to the collapse of the cooperation agreement and the no confidence vote. Speaking of which…

The response to the no confidence vote

As I have written previously, it was fairly unthinkable that Mr Gething could have survived losing a no confidence vote. However, there could have still been a way through. 

If he had lost and said “I hear the view of the Senedd, I understand and I apologise” then there is a chance he could have brought rebellious MSs on side. But this would have needed to be a show of genuine contrition. There were people in the Senedd who thought deeply about whether to vote against him (or not show up), they wanted the Senedd to get on with the job of governing Wales and only voted against him with reservations. They could have been brought back on board. 

But again Mr Gething opted to dismiss concerns, calling the vote a “gimmick”. This further hurt him and the institution in which he sits. 

What happens next?

Plaid, the Greens and Reform have called for an early Senedd election. Labour and the Tories have rejected this idea. The reasons for this are simple.

Of course Plaid Cymru want an early Senedd election - they will increase their share of seats.

Of course Welsh Labour don't want one; they will not come close to their current share.

Of course the Tories don't want one; they will get obliterated.

The next stage realistically is to find a new Labour leader and First Minister. Some in Labour are desperate for there to be a unity candidate who can come in without the need for a leadership race. 

I think this is highly unlikely. The Gething supporters in the Labour group are furious. They perceive that Jeremy Miles supporters have failed to give Vaughan Gething adequate support. They will not allow someone like Jeremy Miles to become leader without a fight. 

If that does happen this fight will likely be long and bitter. It will probably not conclude until the autumn. Even when that is concluded, that person will still face many of the challenges Mr Gething faced:

• No majority in a hostile Senedd

• A divided party 

• Underwhelming polling numbers

• Little to no extra money from Westminster

• Cuts to some services

• Less than two years till the next election

But really the biggest problem facing Labour isn’t Mr Gething (though the controversies surrounding him were a big issue for the party). The biggest issue that faces Welsh Labour is that they have been in power for 25 years and there is a perception from many people in Wales that they have failed to make their lives better. 

Until they can point to improvements in health and education, any leader is going to struggle. 

That's all for this time. As always feedback and suggestions are very welcome.

Thanks again

Will