Turns out 20mph was a great idea
Plus some new voting intention data that looks great for Plaid Cymru
Hello!
I am afraid this newsletter involves a lot of data, but fear not, I think I have made it interesting. Even if I haven’t, you will be able to look really wise at parties.
There are two things I want to talk about today:
The latest 20mph data which strongly suggests (whisper it), that it was actually a really good idea.
Some incredible insights about how people may vote in the next Senedd election
More data supporting the 20mph limit in Wales
The latest casualty data on Welsh roads has been released and it continues to suggest that, from a road safety perspective, it was a very good piece of policymaking.
The latest data covers January - March this year. Now of course we need to premise this by saying that this is still really early days, this is provisional data and this is a small sample size. But the reductions tally with what we have seen in other countries that have introduced 20mph limits - it is almost like evidence-based policy works…
So what is in the latest data? Let’s compare the number of casualties in 20 and 30 mph zones in the first quarter of 2024 with the same period in 2023:
The total number of casualties has gone from 510 to 377 - a 26% fall.
The number killed and seriously injured has gone from 101 to 78 - a 23% fall.
If we break that down further, the number killed has gone from 11 to five - a 55% drop.
Slight injuries are down from 409 to 299 - a 27% reduction.
There is a trend emerging. In the final quarter of 2023, the number of casualties on 20 and 30 mph roads fell from 681 in the final quarter of 2022 to 463.
This data also matches with other sources. For example, insurance company Esure said they had seen a 20% drop in vehicle damage claims in Wales since the nationwide 20mph default speed limit was introduced.
This is a massive money saver
If you need more evidence that this is a good policy beyond purely the human lives and misery saved - there is also a huge financial argument. Car crashes cost a hell of a lot of money.
According to UK Government data, the costs of crashes broken down by severity are:
Fatal - £2,250,876
Serious - £252,935
Slight - £19,499
Let’s work out how much the reduction in casualties has saved just in the first quarter of this year.
6 fewer fatals = £13.5 million saved
17 fewer serious = 4.3 million saved
110 fewer slightly = £2.1 million saved
Total saving = Approximately £19.9 million
Nearly £20m! In just one quarter! The whole policy cost £32m. Why Welsh Labour politicians are not shouting this from every rooftop rather than acting apologetic for the policy is beyond me.
Plaid Cymru and Labour neck and neck!?
This analysis comes from Welsh Election Study data gathered by the Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre. Politics lecturer Jac Larner has some great insights about what this means for Wales.
First, let’s have a look at the voting intention for those surveyed:
Labour 25%
Plaid Cymru 24%
Conservatives 16%
Reform UK 16%
Abolish 7%
Green Party 6%
Liberal Democrats 6%
There is a lot to break down here, so let’s go through some of the headlines:
What does this mean for seats? Labour and Plaid
Given that there will be 50% more MSs at the next election and some of the boundaries have changed, it is tricky to make predictions. However the estimation is that this will leave Plaid on 28 seats and Labour on 28 or 29.
Just a few months ago I wrote a newsletter predicting that Plaid would overtake Labour for the first time ever at the next Senedd election in 2026 (you can read it here). That newsletter will break down for you why I believe this shift is happening.
It is hard to express how big it would be in Welsh politics terms if Labour were to no longer be the largest party in Wales. It would bring to an end a century of unbroken domination in Cymru for the party and could change how Wales is perceived in the wider UK in a similar way to when the SNP broke through in Scotland.
What does this mean for seats? Conservatives and Reform
If this was to happen it would also be a massive result for Reform who are projected to win 16 seats compared to the Tories’ 15. It would in turn be truly devastating for the Conservatives who would go from the official opposition to fourth place.
This will be particularly embarrassing for the current Welsh Conservative leader Andrew RT Davies whose entire strategy for the last two years appears to have been “become Reform”.
What does this mean for seats? Greens, Lib Dems and Abolish
For the smaller parties it is a mixed bag.
The Greens will be delighted to have their first ever representation inside the Welsh Parliament with three seats.
The Lib Dems continue to chronically underwhelm in Wales and fail to capitalise on Labour’s demise with just three seats, though given they currently only have one they will likely see this as positive.
Abolish the Assembly are predicted to secure only one or two seats. They have likely been squeezed by Reform when it comes to devolution protest votes. Perhaps they have lost even their thin veneer of credibility given that the “Assembly” hasn’t actually existed for half a decade. It is like running an Abolish Myspace Party.
What would this mean for the make up of a future Welsh Government?
To get a majority a party would need to win 46 seats. If Plaid or Labour were to go into a coalition with either Reform or the Tories and one of either the Greens or the Libs then they could form a government. But then we hit a snag.
This snag comes from the fact that neither Plaid or Labour would ever likely form a coalition with Reform. But no worries, there has long been a place for a right of centre, moderate Welsh Conservative Party in Wales - surely Plaid/Labour can make a coalition with the Welsh Tories?
But then it becomes clear just how terribly the Welsh Conservatives have been run for the last few years. The only way that the Tories were ever going to get into power in Wales was through a coalition. A smart and savvy leader would have positioned the party away from the toxicity of the UK Conservatives and made his party palatable to other potential coalition partners (and likely win more votes in Wales in the process).
Instead the leader of the Tories has consistently behaved more like a social media troll than a credible opposition leader. He has tried to court and appeal to the hard right of his party and all but ignored the fact that this makes him too electorally toxic to any potential coalition partners.
The consequence is that, despite significant changes in the make-up of the Senedd, we will still likely end up with some kind of Labour/Plaid pact.
That’s all for this week. There may not be a newsletter next week as I am on leave but you will get an extra in the following weeks to make up for it.
As always, thanks so much for the support.
Take care (and drive safe)
Will
But quite a lot of us DID want it but our voices weren’t as loud as those who didn’t.
However, I think the implementation of it leaves a lot to be desired in our area: inconsistent moves from 30 to 20 to 60 to 20 again in less than a mile in one village.
It’s the same as the imposition of seatbelts: some people just can’t bear to be told what to do. Even if it’s for their own good (see vaccinations also). Plenty of populist politicians know to exploit this tendency for their own ends.
Got to say "no sh1t Sherlock!"
There are undoubtedly roads that needed a 20mph speed limit, eg by schools, narrow streets etc. and those that should remain at 30mph. A blanket reduction of all those roads means you capture them both and a statistical reduction is inevitable.
To prove the unwanted blanket reduction was correct you would need a very detailed analysis of both location and circumstances.