This is just embarrassing for Welsh democracy
Plus Vaughan Gething has arranged to go on a pointless trip India
It’s happening again! We are going to have to talk about Vaughan Gething.
But because I have no intention of renaming this newsletter “The Will Hayward talks about Vaughan Gething Newsletter” I am going to cover some other topics first starting with the PCC election.
A democratic farce
The only elections in Wales last week were for the Police and Crime Commissioners. Two newsletters back we went into detail about how these roles are a pointless old boys club so I won’t rehash that. But I do want to look at both the pathetic turnout in these elections and what the new people taking up the roles need to do.
Let’s breakdown the turnout in the four Welsh Police forces starting with Gwent Police.
The turnout in Gwent was 15.45%
Of that 15%, just under 42% voted for the winner (Labour’s Jane Mudd)
This means that of an electorate of 442K people, just 28K voted for the winner.
This, err, ground swell of support comprising just 6.5% of the electorate has catapulted Ms Mudd (whose name is a headline writer's dream) into a £73,000 a year job for four years.
Things weren’t much better in South Wales where the winner got 7.9% of the possible voters and it was even worse in North Wales where it was 6.2%. I can't give you Dyfed Powys because the turnout was announced by council, not the whole force area.
A few things to say here. Firstly, these elections have always been a joke but they didn’t have to be this bad. This decision by the Conservative Government switched from the Supplementary Vote (SV) system, where voters could choose a first and second choice vote to first-past-the-post. This change was part of the controversial Elections Act 2022, which also enforced mandatory photo ID for voters. Or as Jacob Rees-Mogg defined it, an attempt to “gerrymander” future elections.
The other thing to say is that the last PCC election in 2021 was held at the same time as the Senedd election meaning turnout was inevitably higher. In that election the turnout for the four Welsh police forces was higher than any of the votes in England. The results were:
Dyfed-Powys - 51% (The highest in England and Wales)
North Wales - 45%
South Wales - 44%
Gwent - 41%
No English force broke 40% (despite some areas having local elections) with Wiltshire the lowest in 2021 with just 16.6% (comparable with Wales in this election).
Given that we know there is going to be a General Election this year, I would have thought it would have made sense from a turnout and cost saving point of view to extend the PCC election to that point.
Nothing sums up how pointless the role is like this tweet
Chief constable of Gwent Police Pam Kelly inadvertently summed up the shortcomings of the PCC role in a Twitter thread she posted after Ms Mudd was elected. She wrote:
I'm delighted to welcome Jane Mudd as the new Police and Crime Commissioner for Gwent on behalf of all officers, staff and volunteers at Gwent Police.
Her previous experience in public service will be invaluable in scrutinising us and holding this police service to account all the while ensuring the public, especially victims of crime, feel heard.
The PCC's responsibility is to provide a sustainable budget for the force so that we can deliver an emergency service for our public.
However, it is also important, especially during these very challenging times, that we demonstrate through our shared role as custodians of frontline policing, our support and appreciation for the outstanding staff who every day save lives and protect our communities.
Congratulations Jane! Really looking forward to working in close collaboration with you in the near future.
There are a few things here. Firstly the tone of it is just terrible. Chief constables should be really apprehensive about the new PCC, not congratulating them like they are someone they went to uni with on Linkedin.
While she pays lip service to the fact the PCC should be holding there force to account she then lobbies for money and talks about how they will work in “close collaboration” while saying the new commissioner will show “appreciation for the outstanding staff” in the force.
This wildly misses the point of the PCC. They are not there to be spokesperson or cheerleader for the force, they are there to hold them accountable. Under the terms of the Police Reform and Social Responsibility Act 2011, PCCs must:
secure efficient and effective police for their area.
appoint the Chief Constable, hold them to account for running the force, and if necessary, dismiss them.
set the police and crime objectives for their area through a police and crime plan;
set the force budget and determine the precept;
contribute to the national and international policing capabilities set out by the Home Secretary; and
bring together community safety and criminal justice partners, to make sure local priorities are joined up.
Nowhere does it suggest that this entails an unwavering defence of the force against merited criticism (see here for the context). To be fair to chief constable Kelly, the previous PCC Jeff Cuthbert was very much a hype man for the force rather than a scrutiniser.
Perhaps Jane Mudd will buck this trend and fulfil the trust placed in her by 6.5% of the people of Gwent.
Vaughan Gething - When in doubt, go to India?
The First Minister has been under the pump ever since he took the job he always dreamed of. He has completely failed to get on top of the donations scandal and has now been hit with the accusation he deleted text messages so they couldn’t be found by a freedom of information request. This lead the Plaid Cymru leader to suggest that he committed perjury under oath.
What is Mr Gething’s PR response to this crisis? You would think it would be a good one. If you look at the changes to the special advisers in his administration there are marked differences between his and Drakeford’s. Whereas Drakeford’s team were more from a policy background, Vaughan Gething’s is more based around PR.
So what is the plan to steady the ship. It turns out the way of regaining momentum (if indeed he ever had it), is to fly to India to talk to Tata about the looming job losses at Port Talbot.
Now on the one hand this could be a good plan. The changes to the steelworks is a really big deal to both that part of Wales and the wider UK (I would like to do a specific newsletter on it). The leader of Wales heading to India to stand up for Welsh workers and get some concessions is, on the face of it, not a terrible idea. Except for the fact it is totally pointless.
There is absolutely no chance whatsoever of Vaughan Gething getting any concessions from Tata. I really hope I am wrong about this, but I am pretty sure I am not. He isn’t meeting the head of Tata, he is meeting the CEO and CFO of Tata Steel Group.
For some context, last May Rishi Sunak met with the real top man, the chair of the Tata Group Natarajan Chandrasekaran in London. On the table were the future of Port Talbot, the ambition for an electric car battery plant Tata has since confirmed it will build in Somerset and hundreds of millions in subsidies. In contrast, Mr Gething is flying to India with nothing to offer, a short meeting with lower-level executives in the diary and a proposal the company has already given clear reasons why it is rejecting.
The Labour plan to build an electric arc furnace inside a working plant, is considered dangerous and unworkable by the company. There is just no way he is going to come back from this trip with anything to show for it (again, I really hope I eat my words here).
This trip is not going to be cheap. As I understand it Mr Gething is taking 5-6 other people with him. God knows why.
This begs the question of why is he going? Normally when political leaders go on a trip it is to rubber stamp a previous agreed deal. This means they know they are getting a win and don’t risk the embarrassment of coming back empty handed.