The man from Sunderland who hates Welsh people driving slowly
Plus Welsh independence is 'viable', devolution is 'close to collapse' and the S4C saga may have finally ended
Bore da!
First off can I say a welcome to all the new subscribers who have signed up to the newsletter in the last 48 hours.
There has been a massive surge following a Twitter thread (I can’t bring myself to write X) demonstrating that many of the Facebook accounts opposing the 20mph zone were run by Tory politicians.
At time of writing it has been viewed more than 2.4 million times. You can view it here if you wish so I will not go over the whole thing again but will sum it up briefly.
In September the Welsh Government changed many 30mph roads to 20mph roads. The policy was good in principle but there were some big missteps (there is a whole newsletter about it here if you are interested).
There was a huge backlash against the policy from many members of the public. Much of this was genuine dislike of the 20mph introduction, but without doubt some was fanned through Facebook pages. Some of these got pretty nasty with members trying to work out where journalists (including myself) live.
I went through four Facebook groups covering different parts of Wales which opposed the 20mph limit. Four of them all had the same admin - a bloke called Lyall Reed.
Turns out Mr Reed is a Tory councillor from Sunderland who has…wait for it… campaigned to have 20mph limits in his hometown.
I did contact Mr Reed to find out why his disgust for 20mph only applied to streets far away from where he lived. Shortly after making contact his name was mysteriously removed from all the groups. Suspecting this would happen I had taken a screen shot.
A glance at all the other admins found that they all had strong links to the Conservative Party. Take the screenshot above. Alfie White shares a name of a man who was a Tory candidate in Burnley in 2021 and Chris Kirkham shares one with the election agent for Vale of Glamorgan Conservatives.
I think there are a few interesting things here beyond 20mph. The first is that the Conservative Party controls several large Facebook groups. I would not be surprised if, once election campaigning gets going in earnest, we don’t see the names of these groups change or simply the content becomes solely about promoting the Tories. As I saw one person comment, this is Cowbridge Analytica.
I also believe there is something broader here. Given conversations I have had with Welsh Tories, it seems that the UK party is using Wales as a petri dish to see if the “war on motorists” is an issue that could move the needle in a meaningful way come the election.
Just to add, I am NOT saying that the 20mph limit introduction isn’t an issue that has struck a chord with the Welsh public. It has, and many people care deeply about it (though personally I am utterly bored by the whole debate). But there is also no doubt that the issue is being deliberately stoked by people beyond Cymru who have a vested interest in the issue remaining contentious in Wales.
The Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales - what does it say and was there any point?
Today the Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales (which from now on I will call “the commission” because there is no way in hell I am going keep typing that) has published its final report.
Academic and former footballer Professor Laura McAllister and former Archbishop of Canterbury Dr Rowan Williams co-chaired the commission. At close to 200 pages it is a beefy bit of work. It looked at three options for the future of Wales:
Entrenching devolution - this would protect devolution legally and could involve arguing for more powers for Wales like control over the justice system
A federal structure - this would set up regional governments in England, as well as changing the relationship between the UK government and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, using a written constitution
Independence - where Wales would become a sovereign country in its own right.
I am not going to take you through all report but these are they key points:
All three options are “viable”
An urgent change to powers is needed to “protect Welsh devolution from collapse”
Changes to powers over justice, policing and rail infrastructure are required to make devolution work even as it is now.
The fact independence is considered “viable” is likely to be jumped on by the Welsh indy supporters. The biggest obstacle that the indy side faces in Wales is that their cause isn’t really seen by many people as a remotely viable option. A report of this weight saying publicly that there is merit in their pursuit is a huge boost for them. By the way, I wrote a book on Welsh Independence and you can buy it here if you wish (though you will get it much cheaper in literally every charity shop within 5 miles of Pontcanna, Carmarthen or Ceredigion).
The finding that devolution is close to collapse without change is a finding which I believe to be accurate. I am actually planning a “why devolution is struggling” newsletter at the end of February. It clearly is not working as we would want or were promised in 1999 and 2011. Having a Labour Government in Cardiff Bay and London would likely paper over the cracks on the issues for a time because there will be at least two actors who will at least pay lip service to making it work. But no amount of goodwill can change the reality that the mechanisms of devolution are inconsistent and ill conceived.
I think a more broader point is that Wales is finally having a conversation about its future. The fact that we have a government in Wales (whatever its list of failings) and that meaningful work is being done to try and think of a way to make Cymru function better for the people within her is not something we should take for granted and would have once been unthinkable. It is forever bizarre to me that Wales is the oldest nation on these islands we all share yet still seems to be trying to figure out what it wants to be when it grows up.
But ultimately will this report mean anything? Will anything actually change?