A bonus newsletter this week (apparently there is a lot going on).
I won’t be publishing a newsletter on Friday. I am doing the 1am till “whenever I fall asleep” shift so instead I will send out another newsletter on Saturday once the dust has settled. That way we can get into some really juicy analysis.
I just wanted to talk through an interesting titbit from the Isle of Anglesey.
Ynys Mon is a three way fight between Plaid, Labour and the Conservatives. The current incumbent is Conservative Virginia Crosbie. I took a look at the declarations of interests that MPs have to make when they receive donations and Ms Crosbie’s were pretty large.
With an election just days away she has declared more large donations in just the last two months:
The Cayzer Trust donated £5,500. The Cayzer Trust is wholly owned by members of the Cayzer family. It is the principal vehicle through which the bulk of the commercial interests of the Cayzer family are consolidated. They have often donated to the Tories.
The Carlton Club Political Committee donated £12,000. The Carlton Club is a members'-only club in London. It was the original home of the Conservative Party before the days of Conservative Central Office. According to the club's website: “Today the club continues to uphold these values in its day-to-day activities."
It is important to note that this is totally unsurprising. Since she won her seat in 2019 an astronomical amount of private cash has poured in to try and keep the island blue.
In 2023 Virginia Crosbie received £33,000 in donations, in 2022 she was given more than £45,000 in private donations and that was on top of £50,000 she had previously received before that year.
This means that Ms Crosbie has received over £145,000 in private donations to fund her campaigns on Ynys Mon.
This is a really high figure. It is almost enough to buy you the role of First Minister…
So why is she getting so many donations? I can’t really persuade myself that Tory HQ is that dedicated to keeping Anglesey that it would direct donors to send so much to the seat (there are higher priorities in Wales). I think we have to conclude that much of the donations are down to Ms Crosbie’s own fundraising and contacts (she worked as a director at UBS and HSBC).
Plaid have, as you would expect, criticised the donations saying “people deserve better than parties that believe they can buy their votes” and that they are “proud to run people-powered local campaigns in Ynys Môn”.
Plaid have also put up a really strong candidate against Ms Crosbie. Llinos Medi is a local, the current council leader and has a really powerful backstory (she was homeless at one point).
As I have said before I think Ms Crosbie will outperform the party average across the UK but with a majority of just 1,968 it will be a very, very hard task. No one can accuse her of not being a very active local MP who has tried to ingratiate herself in the area (she was born in Essex). As a reporter, she is always willing to speak regarding the constituency (even though the vast majority of what I have written about her has been critical) and I have even spoken to political rivals who acknowledge she is a very energetic adversary.
Speaking to me about her seemingly endless financial resources for her campaign she said:
As always, I am humbled that so many people believe in me and my mission to make Ynys Môn a better place and avoid the disaster of a Plaid Cymru or Labour MP who would go back to the decades of neglect this island endured before 2019.
This money allows me to communicate that vitally important message to a well-educated and informed electorate here on Ynys Môn who I know fear Wylfa, the freeport and the potential future jobs it may bring might vanish into thin air if I am not here to protect them. I have a successful strategy for jobs and investment for this island. I certainly make no apology for being able to campaign during this general election on that strategy with donations all declared and within the rules.
However, the opposition moaning about people donating to my campaign because they firmly believe I will make a difference to Ynys Môn is not a strategy, it is the politics of envy."
It will be a really interesting battle but I think Plaid will take it, with Labour second and Ms Crosbie a surprisingly close 3rd.
It is worth noting that, overall, Labour is massively outperforming the Conservatives when it comes to raising funds for this election. Plus we haven’t seen election returns for any of the candidates so won't know the full picture from this election until they all submit their election accounts (I will be going through them as soon as they drop).
What will Welsh and UK Labour’s relationship be if Keir Starmer becomes PM?
This absolutely fantastic picture was taken by my colleague Rob Browne when Keir Starmer was in Wales earlier today.
I think it is very symbolic of the relationship we can expect between Welsh and UK Labour if Starmer enters Number 10.
To be clear, I am not suggesting individual animosity between Vaughan Gething and Chris Bryant.
What I am suggesting is that Welsh and UK Labour will not get on very well once the dust settles and the WG are making public sector cuts (we discussed these at length last week).
I can't see a situation however where Vaughan Gething can personally kick up a fuss om behalf of Wales given that UK Labour is one of the few areas of support he has remaining.
It is going to be a very interesting time watching the dynamics of Welsh and UK Labour’s relationship develop. Several of the Welsh Labour MPs are pretty sceptical about devolution so I can’t see it remaining particularly cordial.
That’s all for this newsletter. This was just a little preview before the proper one over the weekend.
Feel free to post any last minute predictions in the comments or email me on will.hayward@walesonline.co.uk.
Take care
Will