Prediction - How the donation saga will end

Plus the most cringe worthy exchange in the history of Welsh politics

Shwmae!

Another week, another newsletter. I wanted to thank you all for the comments about the last one. It seems you have an inexhaustible appetite for Vaughan Gething donation news. I was delighted to see how many of you upgraded to paid subscriptions simply to read more about it.

While a small part of me judges you for having nothing better to do with your money than read my musings, I do think it demonstrates how important this story is and highlights the big error the First Minister and his team are making by believing they can just stick their fingers in their ears, shout “la, la, la not listening” and weather the storm.

There is a feeling of flux around Welsh and UK politics at the moment. The general election is coming up and Scotland is about to have a new First Minister. Given this I think it would be a good time to make some bold predictions to thoroughly undermine any credibility I have built up.

At the start of 2024 I wrote a newsletter where I made some predictions for the coming year. You can read it here. Of the six predictions I made, five are still live and one has come to fruition (that the Welsh Labour leadership race will be closer than the Brexit referendum).

If you have your own predictions, pop them in the comments and I will shout out the best ones in the next newsletter.

What will happen to Vaughan Gething?

Okay let’s give this a go. I can’t see any way that Vaughan Gething is removed before a general election. For one thing, no Labour MS wants to rock the boat before the UK goes to the polls. Also, what is the vehicle by which he will be removed?

Unlike in Scotland where the make up of the Scottish Parliament means that Humza Yousaf is reliant on support from people outside his party, Welsh Labour’s huge win in 2021 means that they control 50% of the Senedd. This makes it far harder for opposition parties to put pressure on the First Minister because ultimately, if all his party backs him, he isn’t going anywhere.

However I also think more is likely to come out of the donations story. The nature of the Development Bank of Wales’ support for Dauson Environmental warrants further exploration while there is still the matter of the Welsh Government needing to approve the solar farm that the company submitted an application for on the same day they gave Mr Gething £100k. Plus there is the question of whether UK Labour will accept the left over money.

Therefore I think Mr Gething will emerge from the general election still the First Minister but pretty wounded with a group of MSs all sharpening their long knives. There will then be a period where Labour MSs are euphoric and the new Starmer administration will likely make a token gesture of funding to Wales.

Come the winter Plaid and Labour end their cooperation agreement. This offers an opportunity for Labour backbenchers to flex their muscles because Mr Gething needs to get his spending plans through but doesn’t have a majority. However with the afterglow of the election still in the air they won’t kick up too much of a fuss and Labour will court the single Lib Dem in the Welsh Parliament Jane Dodds in order to get her to back their plans.

But once the dust settles things will change. Stuff will come up as it always does in the course of governance. A Labour Government in Westminster will not suddenly make Welsh NHS waiting lists fall or Betsi Cadwaladr Health Board well managed.

There will be a Welsh Government cock up which will require the First Minister to respond and accept responsibility. It will be something fairly innocuous that a more thoughtful and self confident politician would be able to deftly sidestep. But I predict that Mr Gething won’t do this. His response will be perceived as inadequate and instead of taking it on the chin he will attempt to deflect or diminish the validity of the questioning.

This then will prompt strong criticism of Mr Gething from the members of his own party. It is hard to overstate the bad feeling towards him at the moment. Many people feel overlooked in his reshuffle both in terms of cabinet positions and advisor roles. These people are waiting for him to trip and I predict that they will use the first opportunity they have after the general election to make a move.

However I also predict that this will be unsuccessful. Mr Gething has the support of UK Labour and I simply can’t see a Keir Starmer government in Westminster backing a move against him and I can’t see a move against him without Starmer backing.

Therefore I suspect Mr Gething will limp into the 2026 Senedd election and come out with the worst Labour performance of the devolution era. 2021 was a high water mark for Welsh Labour anyway, there is no chance of them exceeding that performance. But I can see them slumping significantly (though there will be 50% more MSs so their overall number wouldn't change much).

Within a year of that election Mr Gething will step down (whether after jumping or being pushed). The following leadership election will be won by one of Hannah Blythyn, Sarah Murphy or Jeremy Miles and all three of them will put differentiating Welsh Labour from UK Labour at the heart of their pitch.

I appreciate this is pretty detailed and therefore highly unlikely to be correct. Please be gentle with me.

The most cringy exchange ever in Welsh politics…

Watching First Minister’s Questions yesterday, I almost vomited my lunch over my keyboard during one exchange.

Speaking about cuts to the arts Plaid MS Delyth Jewell asked Mr Gething: “Starving the arts of funding impoverishes us all. Music, drama and literature bring immense riches to people's lives. Culture should not be the reserve of only people with lots of money, because poverty doesn't only hurt people in the pocket, it also saps the soul. More that 100 years ago, James Oppenheim wrote that:

'Our lives shall not be sweated from birth until life closes; / Hearts starve as well as bodies; give us bread, but give us roses.'

“First Minister, I wonder if I might give you this rose and if you will keep it and press it as a reminder of that vital sentiment that, no matter the pressures placed on this place or its people, the heart of Wales shall not be starved. So, First Minister, will you accept this rose? I promise that there is no thorn in it.”

She said this while holding up a yellow rose.

To this Mr Gething responded with the most incredible eyebrow movement I have ever seen and said it wouldn’t “be welcome at home”.

You can watch the video here:

Now there is an important point here if you can get past the exchange which sounded like an Arthurian poem. Arts funding in Wales was brutally cut in the last budget. The final budget last month made no changes to the planned 10.5% in cuts to Amgueddfa Cymru, the Arts Council of Wales and the National Library, while the proposed reduction in support for local culture and the arts also didn’t change from previous drafts.

We know that the National Museum of Wales is considering closing its flagship site in Cardiff's Cathays Park and will see the loss of at least 90 jobs as it works out how to make a £4.5m reduction in its budget.

The closure of the museum would be terrible in so many ways. Not only would there be the obvious tragedy of all the young people who would be deprived of a great learning experience regardless of their background but there is also a symbolic loss.

That part of Cathays Park was built to help make Wales distinctive to England in the British Empire. It was literally built to give Wales the building blocks that all countries need. The fact that we can’t even afford to have our own national museum in the heart of the capital would be a travesty on a scale I struggle to even articulate.

Thanks again for reading. Would love to hear your predictions.

Take care

Will