How long can Vaughan Gething last?
Plus some questionable learning materials at a Welsh school...
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How long can Vaughan Gething remain First Minister? I have spoken to people across Welsh Labour to get a feel for what the mood really is.
The Welsh state school discovered to be teaching creationism?
Several occasions where UK Labour have overruled their Welsh counterparts
How long can Vaughan Gething last?
When the majority of members in the parliament in which you sit has said they have “no confidence” in you, there has to be a feeling your days are numbered.
After Mr Gething lost a vote inside the Senedd because his own members wouldn’t back him, both his supporters and the Labour machine went all out decrying the vote as a “gimmick” with the phrase “non-binding” being in almost every sentence.
Senior members of the UK party tied themselves in knots trying to defend it. Member of the shadow cabinet Emily Thornberry embarrassed herself on national radio when asked whether it would have been different if Keir Starmer had lost a vote in the House of Commons.
Given the unprecedented nature of Mr Gething’s loss it begs the question of how long he will remain First Minister? To try and get to the bottom of this, I spoke to experts, activists and elected representatives to try and understand the current mood in the party.
How bad are things for Vaughan Gething at the moment?
It is hard to overstate how precarious his position is right now and there is now actually a fair bit of data underpinning this.
Director of the Wales Governance Centre and politics professor Richard Wyn Jones told WalesOnline: “From the public attitude data that we have, we now have enough for me to feel confident talking about it. It shows two things.
“It shows that he has got high visibility. The amount of people who answer ‘don’t know’ when asked about him is right down. Secondly, the data show that people don’t particularly like him. That is the brutal reality.”
When the public in Wales are polled on the specifics of the donation Mr Gething took the results are stark. The latest Redfield and Wilton poll suggested he holds a net approval rating of -17%, down 27-points from last month.
The poll finds only 18% (-15) of voters now approve of Gething’s overall job performance as First Minister of Wales. He is even now behind the unpopular Conservative leader Andrew RT Davies on who would make a better First Minister.
Speaking to activists, several have said that the donations issue is coming up increasingly on the doorstep in recent weeks. “To suggest it hasn't been cut through is simply not correct,” said one.
Another added:
Vaughan has been out canvassing with our General Election candidates and it’s astonishing we are allowing it to happen. Him being with us knocking doors drags us down and tars us with his brush.”
People are still furious
If Vaughan Gething and his team thought that time would heal the wounds of the contentious leadership contest they were sadly mistaken. After a bruising contest, with the union stitch up and huge spending imbalances, people are now angered by how the new First Minister has handled issues in his first weeks and months in power.
Several people cited the treatment of staffers who had supported Jeremy Miles as a key example of Mr Gething’s failure to build bridges after the vote. There was also very real anger that Mr Gething’s acolytes worked with the UK Labour whips to pressure Welsh MSs ahead of the no-confidence vote.
This is seen as UK Labour interfering (more on that later).
Damage to the Welsh Labour brand
The Welsh Labour brand is incredibly important. There is a reason that Scottish Labour was once nearly wiped out when Welsh Labour wasn’t. Welsh Labour have been historically really good at being different, at creating that “clear red water” as Mark Drakeford once wrote for Rhodri Morgan. This ability to stand apart from UK Labour is very valuable and has been a key factor in Welsh Labour winning every election in Wales for over 100 years.
But this is now under threat in a very real way. Professor Wyn Jones said: “There is overwhelming evidence that the Welsh Labour brand is incredibly important. They are trashing the brand at present.”
One person out knocking doors for Labour told me: “This whole situation is really quite regrettable, and could have been easily avoided at so many junctures, during both the leadership campaign and Vaughan Gething’s time as leader.
“This situation was so foreseeable it really is amazing that we still have found ourselves in this situation. While our national party has campaigned on honesty and integrity (Boris Johnson’s partygate, Owen Paterson lobbying, Michelle Mone PPE, etc the list goes on) it is frankly embarrassing that at home in Wales we’ve been forced into defending the same arguments.
“Who knows whether Hannah Bythyn leaked or didn’t - she is very well regarded in North Wales and seen as trustworthy, but of course politics is politics. But sacking her so bluntly was self-destructive.
“After the cooperation agreement ended I warned my CLP that this was dangerous and that we risked a Humza Yousaf style disintegration. We put ourselves in a position where one disaffected Labour MS could spoil it all, or we are relying on Jane Dodds!
“So when the confidence vote was announced, I had no faith that we’d come through. Lee Waters and Hannah Blythyn being ‘ill’ was unsurprising but who could blame them - it was deeply unhelpful but their support was hardly earned. Now we are told the vote means nothing. I think a VONC in the government may follow and perhaps those MSs will fall in line for that. But in the meantime, we are left an embarrassment.”
How the hell are the Welsh Government going to pass a budget?
Aside from taking the donation in the first place, there are two big mistakes that Mr Gething has made and in both cases it stems from a seeming total unawareness of his own position.
The first is that he has acted like he has a majority in the Senedd - he does not. There was a reason he had an agreement with Plaid Cymru, because he needed them.
The second is that he acted like he has the support of a majority of his own MSs - he doesn’t. Most Labour members voted for Jeremy Miles.
The problem is, when you stroll around like you have power and support that you don’t really have, you eventually end up walking into the hard wall of reality. In Vaughan Gething’s case this will likely be the next budget.
How are they going to get their budget for next year through? They only have 30 out of 60 Senedd Members. There is no way the Tories will vote through a budget. Plaid could very well demand Mr Gething step down in exchange for helping the budget pass. The only hope for Mr Gething is that he gets the lone Liberal Democrat Jane Dodds to support him much like Kirsty Williams did for Labour previously. But Ms Williams was given a cabinet position (education) in exchange for the support, would Ms Dodds accept a post of just over a year to back him?
I find it hard to imagine how he could bring her onside. Plus what would that say about her? She just said she had no confidence in him - why would she now prop him up?
It is worth adding that some opponents might want him to stay in post because, at present, he would be the largest of albatrosses around the neck of Welsh Labour going into an election 2026.
The best time for him to go is now
Even if he gets his budget through, when it comes to legislation it seems improbable that Mr Gething will be able to do much. “My expectation is that he will attempt to do as little as possible and that will please the Parliamentary Labour Party”, said Prof Richard Wyn Jones.
“The PLP very clearly wants him there. If you are looking at him in terms of survivability, it will ultimately come down to when the Labour Party starts looking at the polling and taking it seriously.
“If they were taking it seriously they might think now is an easy point for him to step aside - given the general election and the media's obsession with the ins and outs of Farage.
“However it is also plausible that they will do what Conservative Party is doing and stumble into the 2026 election with an unpopular leader.”
When will it get better?
Ultimately there are three ways Mr Gething goes: he resigns, his own party pushes him out or the Welsh Government loses a Senedd no confidence vote.
He has given absolutely no indication he will resign. If you won't quit after losing a no confidence vote, when will you?
The chances of the Welsh Gov losing a no confidence vote are slim. It would require a Labour member to vote against. It is one thing to vote against Mr Gething, but quite another to vote against your own party in government.
This just leaves the party to remove him. This only happens if he is seen by UK Labour as more a hindrance than a help. Once the General Election is done all eyes in Wales are on 2026.
"We're seeing one of the biggest gaps we've ever seen between Westminster vote intention for Labour and Senedd vote intention for Labour," said Dr Jac Larner, a lecturer in political science at Cardiff University speaking to the BBC.
"At the moment in the polls around 45% - just less than half - of all voters say they'll vote Labour in a Westminster election but that goes down to about 30% in Senedd elections.
"You don't want to read too much into that of course, but it does suggest that Labour at Welsh elections, at devolved elections, are at the moment considerably less popular than they are when it comes to Westminster elections."
If this is the case in six months, you can see a scenario where the party moves against Mr Gething. Especially if they can’t get that budget through.
Welsh state school teaching creationism?
Meanwhile in mid Wales evidence has emerged of what I would suggest is some questionable learning material.
The National Secular Society has raised concerns that the headteacher at Llanidloes High School in Powys is using school resources to heavily indoctrinate children by surrounding them with quotes from the bible even as part of scientific posters and teaching materials. He is accused of directing pupils to the evangelistic ‘Alpha’ Christian course.
Photographs show displays at the school combining science and geography content with quotes from the Bible raising concerns his teaching is creationist.
One display of marine life features the quotation: “God created the great creatures of the sea and every living thing”. Another, representing the solar system, includes the quote: “Great are the works of the Lord, studied by all who delight in them”.
Another display depicting a map of the world says: “From one man God made all the nations, that they should inhabit the whole Earth; and he marked out their appointed times in history and the boundaries of their lands”.
The displays, which are large enough to cover entire walls, were reportedly paid for using school funds, with a source at the school describing them as “very expensive”.
The promotion of creationism is not currently prohibited in Welsh schools. In England, teaching creationism as a scientific theory is banned.
We’ve approached the school and it has not responded.
The NSS has written to the Welsh Government requesting that new guidance be issued explicitly prohibiting the promotion or teaching of creationism as an alternative scientific theory. It also called for an investigation into the evangelism at Llanidloes High School.
Teachers ‘told to promote evangelical Christian course to tutor groups’
The school’s headteacher, Dan Owen, is also a leader at the nearby Newtown Evangelical Church. The church’s website claims it has a “very special duty to preach the Gospel to every living person”, and to take “the Gospel to all nations”. The website also states repentance should be “preached and pressed” upon “all men”.
In addition to the wall displays, Mr Owen is also alleged to have told teachers to show a video advertising the ‘Alpha’ course to their tutor groups. Alpha is an evangelistic course which aims to convert students to Christianity.
Posters for a lunchtime club called ‘Lighthouse’, where pupils would follow the Alpha course, were also posted around the school.
For me what was most concerning is photographs of school planners provided to pupils also reveal an advice page, entitled ‘Help in Time of Need’, which includes sections on suicide, sex, and abuse. The page solely refers to verses from the Bible. These verses include advice that children “flee from sexual immorality”, “flee the evil desires of youth”, and that those who look at women “lustfully” have already “committed adultery” in their heart.
The section for advice on abuse points pupils towards two verses. One says: “If anyone causes one of these little ones — those who believe in me [Jesus] — to stumble, it would be better for them if a large millstone were hung around their neck and they were thrown into the sea”.
Another says that to “avoid fornication, let every man have his own wife, and let every woman have her own husband. Let the husband render unto the wife due benevolence: and likewise also the wife unto the husband.”
In relation to suicide, a Psalm advises students to “entrust” their lives to God.
The advice page does not direct the pupils to helplines or other professional sources of support for abuse or suicide.
Stephen Evans, chief executive of the National Secular Society, said:
“Promoting creationism is entirely without educational justification, and actively undermines teaching about evidence-based theories such as evolution, as well as children’s critical thinking skills.
“The extensive campaign of evangelism at Llanidloes High School is a gross violation of the trust which should exist between pupils, parents, and staff.
“Significant school time and resources have been expended on efforts to inculcate the religious ideology of the headteacher.
“The Welsh Government must urgently investigate Llanidloes High School, and introduce measures explicitly prohibiting the promotion of creationism.”
When I approached the Welsh Government they said:
“Schools are required to teach science including evolution at an early age to help lay the foundations for a better understanding of wider scientific concepts and formation of the universe.
“Religion, Values and Ethics (RVE) curriculum requires learners to be engaged with a range of views and beliefs commonly held in society.
“Community schools are not permitted to have a religious leaning and we are in discussions with the relevant local authority.”
The council are also unhappy saying: “The council will be taking these concerns seriously and are in discussions with the Welsh Government.
“All schools in the county are required to follow the Curriculum of Wales Framework and supporting guidance including the Religion, values and ethics (RVE) guidance as RVE is a statutory requirement of the Curriculum for Wales.”
What UK Labour really thinks of Wales
I want to finish with two examples that show where Wales really stands in the minds of UK Labour.
The first is comments by Yvette Cooper who, if Labour win the election, will be in charge of England and Wales’ police.
She told BBC Radio Wales Breakfast on Wednesday: "We need to keep the links around policing and crime across England and Wales.
"Not least because here in north wales there’s obviously strong links, in terms of what happens in Merseyside has an impact on north wales and so on.
"So you have to have all of those close relationships between police forces."
By contrast the Labour-led Welsh government has long backed the devolution of justice and policing. It was a key component of both Jeremy Miles and Vaughan Gething’s campaigns.
It is also revealing to listen to Emily Thornberry who spoke to Lewis Goodall on LBC this week. The shadow attorney general Emily Thornberry attempted to explain why it was right for Mr Gething to remain the most powerful man in Wales after losing a no confidence vote.
She began by using the default line put forward by Labour since Mr Gething lost the vote. She said: "I really think it is sad at the time of a general election that the opposition parties, the Conservatives in particular, are resorting to these sort of gimmicks."
To this an incredulous Mr Goodall said: "He's lost a vote of no confidence. Two of his own members didn't vote for him. How can he possibly stay on?"
A dismissive Ms Thornberry said: "Two of his own members were ill and were not able to attend. If they had it would have gone another way. It's a non-binding gesture and I think there are more important things going on in Wales than that."
But then she got in a bit of a tangle. The host posed a scenario to the shadow attorney general. He said: "If Keir Starmer lost a motion of no-confidence in the House of Commons in him personally or in the PLP (Parliamentary Labour Party) he would stay on? He would be fine with that?"
She replied: "He is not going to lose one is he though?" Mr Goodall said: "So it's a matter of practicality?" Ms Thornberry then said: "No, it's not a matter of practicality, I am just trying to answer some of your more odd questions."
Mr Goodall said: "It's an odd question of the First Minister of Wales losing a no-confidence vote? Isn't that rather dismissive of the Senedd?"
She replied: "No, I wasn't dismissing that. What I was dismissing was the idea that Keir Starmer, if he was elected, would face a vote of no-confidence... That would be an odd thing to happen."
Yes indeed. It would be very “odd” for a newly elected Labour leader to lose the support of the chamber in which he sits wouldn’t it? It would crazy in fact. Imagine if that were to happen…
That’s all for today but there is plenty more in the coming newsletters (I thought 3,000 words was enough). I almost judge you for getting this far down.
Take care
Will