How has it gone so badly for Welsh Labour?

Plus what is next for Vaughan Gething

Hi everyone.

I want to start this newsletter with some personal news. 

I am going to be off work from WalesOnline for the next six weeks. Without going into too much detail, a member of my family has been very unwell for a long time and I plan on using the summer to spend as much time with them as possible.

Given how supportive you all have been of this newsletter, I am going to keep doing it through the summer. However, as I won’t be in work day to day, some of the newsletters may be more focussed on wider issues than simply looking at what happened in Wales that week. 

It will feel strange to be away from work for so long, especially when I am so used to the day-to-day treadmill of news. However I know this is a decision I will never regret. 

Now that is out of the way, on to the newsletter!

A confession

Given that you all subscribe to this I should probably tell you the truth. I am a fraud and possibly a war criminal. In my defence I didn’t know this myself until some enterprising little freedom fighter stuck the following picture on the outside of our building. 

Usually it is anti-vaxxers but who knows this time? I have been very critical of the First Minister…

I would also like to credit them with using a laminator, it really gives it more longevity.

The Hannah Blythyn situation

The situation with Hannah Blythyn that played out this week was incredibly uncomfortable to watch. There is so much back and forth I will try and summarise the situation as it stands:

• She was sacked in May for allegedly leaking to the media a message originally posted in a group of Labour MSs and in which Mr Gething said he was going to delete messages because they could be captured by a Freedom of Information Request. This is controversial because Mr Gething previously told the Covid Inquiry his messages had been lost through no fault of his own.

• This week Hannah Bythyn stood up in the Senedd and denied she was the leak. She also attacked the First Minister in her speech (more on this below).

• Vaughan Gething then made an incredibly uncomfortable statement in the Senedd where he outlined what had underpinned his decision to sack Ms Blythyn. She was in the background shaking her head. 

• The First Minister argued that a journalist sent the screenshot from the message group and that it was clear from the image that it originated from Hannah Blythyn’s phone. 

You can see some of the awkward interactions in the Senedd here (Ms Blythyn is in the blue blazer): 

Now this could all come to a head on Wednesday. The Tories have tabled a motion where they call on Mr Gething to release “all evidence he relied upon in deciding to dismiss the former Minister for Social Partnership from the Welsh Government”.

If Welsh Labour members rebel in this vote it could seriously wound the First Minister, perhaps to the point he will have to step down (though he didn’t step down after losing a no-confidence vote so who knows what he will do).

Last week we talked about how Labour were really underperforming in Wales compared to other parts of the UK. This begs the question….

Why are Welsh Labour not as popular as they were?

Back in 2021 when Mark Drakeford exceeded all expectations in the Senedd election Welsh Labour were riding high.

By contrast the Keir Starmer-led Labour Party were struggling to make headway in the polls against a still popular Boris Johnson who was basking in the glow of the vaccine roll out.

Welsh Labour were held up as the “blueprint” for wider Labour success. There was a sense in many parts of Cymru that here in Wales we “did things differently” to those in Westminster, a feeling that only increased when the news of the Downing Street lockdown parties began to emerge.

Welsh Labour were trading on the fact they were, well, Welsh. They had totally outmanoeuvred Plaid Cymru with their distinctly Welsh brand and had developed a sense of confidence no devolved administration had seen before. Within the Senedd they were able to push forward with some distinct policies due to their cooperation agreement with the nationalists.

But fast forward to July 2024 and the situation is very different. Keir Starmer is now the Prime Minister with an absolutely huge majority. He has reclaimed many of the party's lost seats in Scotland while the collapse of the Tory vote in England has given him MPs in areas where it was previously unthinkable that those wearing a red rosette would come out on top.

This is unlike in Wales where Welsh Labour’s share of the vote actually fell. Their leader is simultaneously widely recognised and widely disliked. He has lost a vote of no confidence within the very institution in which he sits. Welsh Labour look likely to be unable to pass their own budget after Plaid pulled out of the cooperation agreement. The Labour group within the Senedd is bitterly divided culminating with the incredibly uncomfortable moment where Vaughan Gething explained in the chamber why he sacked a minister while she shook her head and rolled eyes directly behind him. She was contradicting him in real time.

This begs the question of how we came to this situation? While it is easy to point to Vaughan Gething as the cause of Welsh Labour’s current woes, and without doubt his tenure has been abysmal so far, it isn’t the whole story. Vaughan Gething didn’t take a party that was performing well and ruin it. Realistically there are two issues currently weighing Welsh Labour down and threatening their long established hegemony over governance in Wales:

1. The perceived inability of the Welsh Government to improve public services.

2. The never ending saga surrounding the First Minister.

The real issue for Welsh Labour isn’t that their leader has been relentlessly accused of unethical behaviour or dodging scrutiny. It is the fact they are not perceived as doing a very good job of running the country.

Public services in Wales are really struggling. Now we say this a lot about public services to the point that it seems to barely mean anything anymore. But in Wales the vital things that are integral to the well being of people like schools and hospitals are in a very poor state (though this is not the fault of the staff within them). There are currently 21,290 people waiting over two years for an NHS procedure, this figure is actually up from the month before. England currently has virtually no two year waits.

The Welsh Labour Government has run services in Wales for the whole of the 21st century. Yes they have had cuts from Westminster and this has made life difficult for them, but there are serious mismanagements in the Welsh health service for which the Welsh Government has sole responsibility.

The fact that the Labour are being seen as doing a bad job is far more detrimental to their long term electoral prospects than in fighting with the party.

However this is not to say that the situation surrounding Mr Gething has made his party's position far worse. The challenges can be illustrated by going through parts of Hannah Blythyn’s speech to the Senedd. Let’s take a look..

• "I know that I can look all my colleagues who sit on these benches in the eye and say that I have never leaked or briefed the media about any of you. In fact, I can say that to everyone in the Siambr.”

This is directly contradictory to what the First Minister argues. They can’t both be correct.

• "I will share that I have formally raised concerns about the process by which I was removed from Government, including not being shown any alleged evidence before being sacked, not being made aware that I was ever under investigation and that at no point was I advised or was it evidenced that I may have broken the ministerial code.”

This further divides the Labour group where many are appalled at the treatment of Hannah Blythyn.

• “I have also very real concerns that lessons have not been learned from the past. Proper process not only needs to be in place and followed for the dignity and respect of individuals involved, but also to uphold the integrity of the civil service and the office of the First Minister.”

There are two things in here that are worth noting. The first is “lessons have not been learned from the past”. This could easily be a reference to the tragic case of Carl Sargeant who was removed from his Cabinet position and suspended from Welsh Labour in November 2017 following allegations about his behaviour. He committed suicide four days later. If this is what Ms Blythyn is alluding to it strongly suggests that she believes Mr Gething’s treatment of her has seriously affected her mental health. This is also reflected in how she opened her speech where she said: “There have been times in the not too recent past when I was not sure I would or could stand and speak in this Siambr again.”

The reference to the “integrity of the office of the First Minister” underlines the view of many in the group and wider public that the FM’s integrity has been compromised.

• “We've talked often in this place of a kinder politics, but we can't have a kinder politics without kinder people, and we won't get better politics without being better people. Our own conduct and character is key to the public having trust in those who serve them and believing that politics can be a force for good.”

There is no way of reading this as anything other than a deeply personal attack on the First Minister.

• “It has been a privilege to serve in my country's Government, particularly under the leadership of Mark Drakeford.”

Drawing parallels between Vaughan Gething and the man who went before him underscores the divide within Welsh Labour. There was absolutely a faction within the group who were not fans of the way the previous First Minister went about things and saw Mr Gething as a more dynamic character.

What next for the First Minister?

There are two ways that this likely ends for the First Minister.

One of these is he loses in a vote next Wednesday where the Tories are trying to get him to produce all the evidence underpinning his decision to sack Hannah Blythyn. If his own party voted against him in any numbers it could be fatal for him.

Or he fails to get his budget through in the autumn/winter. There is simply no conceivable way that he can carry on if that happens.

It would be an unthinkable act of incredible electoral suicide for Mr Gething to still be the leader of Welsh Labour when the 2026 Senedd election comes around. The party would have to have rocks in their head to allow this. But as we are currently seeing in the US, it only takes the person at the top to see themselves as indispensable for the unthinkable to happen.

Whenever it happens however, there is no doubt that both poorly-performing public services and the Vaughan Gething saga have done incredible damage to devolution and the public's perception of it. 

That’s all for this week. 

As always, thank you so much for your support. 

Take care

Will