Hi all,
Thanks for the messages after the last newsletter.
The story about a school that was accused of teaching creationism (which was first broken exclusively in this newsletter) has been picked in lots of places and has triggered an investigation into teaching practices in the school.
This week will be a whistle stop tour around several interesting stories finishing with a deep dive into whether Plaid Cymru could lead the Welsh Government come 2026.
Labour being disingenuous
These pictures show a leaflet that the Labour Party were delivering in Monmouthshire the day the postal votes went out voters.
They show pledges to reduce waiting times in the Welsh NHS, recruit new teachers and clean up the rivers. All three of these things are devolved and have been well within the gift of the party’s representatives in Cardiff Bay to solve for decades.
A cyclical person might suggest they are hoping people’s naivety to devolution would mean that they overlook this fact.
Wales a Tory free zone?
There are now polls regularly suggesting we could be seeing a Conservative wipeout in Wales. This would mean that four men who have held the role of secretary of state for Wales will be losing their seat - Alun Cairns, Stephen Crabb, Simon Hart (who is currently chief whip) and the current person in that role David TC Davies.
The safest seat for them was Craig Williams who is running in Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr. However he is no longer a safe bet for them because, well, he made a safe bet. You will probably have seen by now that three days before the election date was announced Mr Williams, who is Sunak’s right hand man, placed a £100 bet on the date of the election.
This is currently being investigated and it is clear from comments made by people within the cabinet and the Prime Minister that the party has no interest in supporting him. If he is found to have transgressed it is very possible there would be a recall petition even if he was to win the seat. Meaning a rump Tory Party could be fighting a by-election straight after the General.
There are two Welsh Tory MPs who I think defy the polls. I am not saying they will keep their seats, but I reckon they will outperform the UK average for the party. These are Virginia Crosbie in Anglesey and David TC Davies in Monmouth.
There are reasons to be critical of both of them (and I regularly have in this newsletter), but you can’t really argue that they are not very active in their constituencies and have cultivated a significant personal following which may motivate their base to get out and vote more than in other parts of the country.
What chance do the Greens have in Wales?
I recently wrote this analysis for WalesOnline having attended the Wales Green Party manifesto launch (don’t worry, I cycled there).
Though they acknowledge that there is no chance of them winning any Welsh seats in the General Election, their leader Anthony Slaughter (amazing name) is absolutely convinced that in an expanded Senedd in 2026 they will have between one and three members.
This would be a really big deal for them beyond the legitimising kudos that comes with having seats. It also gives them staff and resources that enable them to raise their profile over the next five years. This is massive, when you have people within the party who are there because it is their job rather than in addition to their job it makes spreading your message so much easier.
I think the Greens are right in their hopes. I can see a situation where Plaid and the Greens have an electoral pact in 2026 (they did something similar in Cardiff during the 2022 council elections). Two pro indy parties running against each other in Wales doesn’t seem a productive way to increase your representation.
Plaid Cymru to be the largest party in Wales in the 2026 Senedd election?
There is a growing chance that Plaid Cymru will be the largest party at the Senedd election in 2026. Or at the very least the will out perform their best ever result that they got in 1999 when they got just under a third of the vote.
Wait, wait, hear me out here. I know that for decades, whenever an election is upcoming, people far cleverer than me have said that Plaid Cymru is on the verge of a breakthrough. Then the election rolls around and the same thing happens – they do well in Welsh-speaking heartlands and fail to cut it in a meaningful way elsewhere. And so the stagnation continues.
However, there is good evidence to suggest 2026 will be different.
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